| 1 | Frontier training costs have moved into a new band. GPT-4 cost roughly seventy-eight million dollars in compute. Llama three point one was about one hundred and seventy million. Gemini Ultra reached one hundred and ninety-one million. The 2026 frontier sits between two hundred and five hundred million per run, at one to ten times ten-to-the-twenty-sixth FLOPs. The late 2027 projection — based on announced data-center buildouts — is one to three billion dollars per run. The constraint, importantly, is no longer chips or capital. The constraint is multi-gigawatt power siting and grid interconnect. The next cohort is being built around substations, not around silicon. |