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| 7 | <text x="60" y="56" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#8A857E" letter-spacing="3">PART II · THE BIG THREE · 07</text> |
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| 9 | <text x="60" y="120" font-family="Cambria, "Microsoft YaHei", serif" font-size="28" font-weight="bold" fill="#E8E6E1">估值兑现度：<tspan fill="#E63946">气泡大小 = 投资人数</tspan></text> |
| 10 | <text x="60" y="152" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="14" font-style="italic" fill="#8A857E">Valuation × ARR × investor count — who is most over-extended?</text> |
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| 27 | |
| 28 | <text x="148" y="285" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#5C5852" text-anchor="end">$1000B</text> |
| 29 | <text x="148" y="365" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#5C5852" text-anchor="end">$750B</text> |
| 30 | <text x="148" y="445" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#5C5852" text-anchor="end">$500B</text> |
| 31 | <text x="148" y="525" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#5C5852" text-anchor="end">$250B</text> |
| 32 | <text x="148" y="565" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#5C5852" text-anchor="end">$0</text> |
| 33 | |
| 34 | <text x="160" y="585" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#5C5852" text-anchor="middle">$0</text> |
| 35 | <text x="380" y="585" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#5C5852" text-anchor="middle">$10B</text> |
| 36 | <text x="600" y="585" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#5C5852" text-anchor="middle">$20B</text> |
| 37 | <text x="820" y="585" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#5C5852" text-anchor="middle">$30B</text> |
| 38 | <text x="1040" y="585" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#5C5852" text-anchor="middle">$40B</text> |
| 39 | |
| 40 | <text x="60" y="380" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="12" fill="#8A857E" transform="rotate(-90, 60, 380)" text-anchor="middle">VALUATION ($B) →</text> |
| 41 | <text x="680" y="615" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="12" fill="#8A857E" text-anchor="middle">ANNUALIZED REVENUE (ARR, $B) →</text> |
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| 48 | <text x="290" y="533" text-anchor="middle" font-family="Cambria, "Microsoft YaHei", serif" font-size="14" font-weight="bold" fill="#E8E6E1">xAI</text> |
| 49 | <text x="290" y="551" text-anchor="middle" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="10" fill="#8A857E">$5B / $230B · 8+ investors</text> |
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| 55 | <text x="940" y="381" text-anchor="middle" font-family="Cambria, "Microsoft YaHei", serif" font-size="14" font-weight="bold" fill="#E8E6E1">Anthropic</text> |
| 56 | <text x="940" y="363" text-anchor="middle" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="10" fill="#8A857E">$30B / $380B · 5 investors</text> |
| 57 | |
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| 60 | <text x="1090" y="298" text-anchor="end" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#F4A261">→ $900B (in talks)</text> |
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| 64 | <circle cx="784" cy="253" r="48" fill="#E63946" fill-opacity="0.18" stroke="#E63946" stroke-width="2"/> |
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| 66 | <text x="784" y="320" text-anchor="middle" font-family="Cambria, "Microsoft YaHei", serif" font-size="14" font-weight="bold" fill="#E8E6E1">OpenAI</text> |
| 67 | <text x="784" y="338" text-anchor="middle" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="10" fill="#8A857E">$24B / $852B · 7+ investors</text> |
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| 69 | |
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| 71 | <line x1="160" y1="560" x2="1200" y2="200" stroke="#8A857E" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="6,4" opacity="0.4"/> |
| 72 | <text x="1140" y="192" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="10" fill="#8A857E" text-anchor="end" opacity="0.7">implied "fair valuation" trend</text> |
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| 79 | <text x="100" y="671" font-family="Cambria, "Microsoft YaHei", serif" font-size="14" fill="#E8E6E1">所有气泡都站在"公允线"上方——估值跑得比收入快；其中 <tspan fill="#E63946" font-weight="bold">xAI 偏离最远</tspan>（ARR 估算最低却估值 $230B），<tspan fill="#F4A261" font-weight="bold">Anthropic 兑现度最高</tspan>（ARR $30B）。</text> |
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| 83 | <text x="60" y="715" font-family=""Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif" font-size="10" fill="#5C5852">Sources: Bloomberg · TechCrunch · Anthropic press 2026-02 / 2026-04 · OpenAI funding 2026-03</text> |
| 84 | <text x="1220" y="715" text-anchor="end" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="10" fill="#5C5852">07 / 20</text> |
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