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| 7 | <text x="60" y="56" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#8A857E" letter-spacing="3">PART VI · THE BUBBLE · 19</text> |
| 8 | <line x1="60" y1="72" x2="200" y2="72" stroke="#E63946" stroke-width="1"/> |
| 9 | <text x="60" y="120" font-family="Cambria, "Microsoft YaHei", serif" font-size="28" font-weight="bold" fill="#E8E6E1">四大风险，<tspan fill="#E63946">互相放大</tspan></text> |
| 10 | <text x="60" y="152" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="14" font-style="italic" fill="#8A857E">The four risk vectors that compound each other in 2026 AI capital</text> |
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| 18 | <g id="q1-capex-gap"> |
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| 22 | <text x="100" y="234" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="10" fill="#E63946" letter-spacing="3">RISK 01</text> |
| 23 | <use data-icon="tabler-outline/scale" x="540" y="216" width="36" height="36" fill="#E63946" stroke-width="1.5"/> |
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| 25 | <text x="100" y="278" font-family="Cambria, "Microsoft YaHei", serif" font-size="22" font-weight="bold" fill="#E8E6E1">Capex / Revenue 鸿沟</text> |
| 26 | <text x="100" y="302" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#8A857E" font-style="italic">Capex outruns commercial revenue</text> |
| 27 | |
| 28 | <text x="100" y="344" font-family=""Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif" font-size="14" fill="#C9C5BE"> |
| 29 | <tspan x="100" dy="0">• 增速差 <tspan fill="#E63946" font-weight="bold">+46pt</tspan></tspan> |
| 30 | <tspan x="100" dy="22">• 2001 电信泡沫期为 32pt</tspan> |
| 31 | <tspan x="100" dy="22">• <tspan fill="#E63946" font-weight="bold">差距已超 2001 泡沫</tspan></tspan> |
| 32 | </text> |
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| 35 | <g id="q2-roi"> |
| 36 | <rect x="640" y="200" width="560" height="220" fill="#1A1F26" stroke="#2A2F36" stroke-width="1"/> |
| 37 | <rect x="640" y="200" width="560" height="4" fill="#E63946"/> |
| 38 | |
| 39 | <text x="660" y="234" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="10" fill="#E63946" letter-spacing="3">RISK 02</text> |
| 40 | <use data-icon="tabler-outline/target" x="1100" y="216" width="36" height="36" fill="#E63946" stroke-width="1.5"/> |
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| 42 | <text x="660" y="278" font-family="Cambria, "Microsoft YaHei", serif" font-size="22" font-weight="bold" fill="#E8E6E1">企业 ROI 难落地</text> |
| 43 | <text x="660" y="302" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#8A857E" font-style="italic">Enterprise ROI lags badly behind capex</text> |
| 44 | |
| 45 | <text x="660" y="344" font-family=""Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif" font-size="14" fill="#C9C5BE"> |
| 46 | <tspan x="660" dy="0">• MIT: <tspan fill="#E63946" font-weight="bold">95%</tspan> AI 试点未产生商业价值</tspan> |
| 47 | <tspan x="660" dy="22">• 仅 <tspan fill="#E63946" font-weight="bold">5%</tspan> 企业 EBIT 受 AI 显著影响</tspan> |
| 48 | <tspan x="660" dy="22">• 投资在赌"未来兑现"</tspan> |
| 49 | </text> |
| 50 | </g> |
| 51 | |
| 52 | <g id="q3-concentration"> |
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| 54 | <rect x="80" y="420" width="560" height="4" fill="#F4A261"/> |
| 55 | |
| 56 | <text x="100" y="454" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="10" fill="#F4A261" letter-spacing="3">RISK 03</text> |
| 57 | <use data-icon="tabler-outline/alert-triangle" x="540" y="436" width="36" height="36" fill="#F4A261" stroke-width="1.5"/> |
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| 59 | <text x="100" y="498" font-family="Cambria, "Microsoft YaHei", serif" font-size="22" font-weight="bold" fill="#E8E6E1">客户集中度风险</text> |
| 60 | <text x="100" y="522" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#8A857E" font-style="italic">Six customers carry the whole supply chain</text> |
| 61 | |
| 62 | <text x="100" y="564" font-family=""Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif" font-size="14" fill="#C9C5BE"> |
| 63 | <tspan x="100" dy="0">• Nvidia 收入 <tspan fill="#F4A261" font-weight="bold">85% 来自 6 家</tspan></tspan> |
| 64 | <tspan x="100" dy="22">• 前 4 名占近 60%</tspan> |
| 65 | <tspan x="100" dy="22">• 任一砍 capex → 级联冲击</tspan> |
| 66 | </text> |
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| 71 | <rect x="640" y="420" width="560" height="4" fill="#F4A261"/> |
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| 73 | <text x="660" y="454" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="10" fill="#F4A261" letter-spacing="3">RISK 04</text> |
| 74 | <use data-icon="tabler-outline/briefcase" x="1100" y="436" width="36" height="36" fill="#F4A261" stroke-width="1.5"/> |
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| 76 | <text x="660" y="498" font-family="Cambria, "Microsoft YaHei", serif" font-size="22" font-weight="bold" fill="#E8E6E1">融资结构转向负债</text> |
| 77 | <text x="660" y="522" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#8A857E" font-style="italic">From operating cash flow to debt</text> |
| 78 | |
| 79 | <text x="660" y="564" font-family=""Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif" font-size="14" fill="#C9C5BE"> |
| 80 | <tspan x="660" dy="0">• 现金流融资 → <tspan fill="#F4A261" font-weight="bold">举债融资</tspan></tspan> |
| 81 | <tspan x="660" dy="22">• 自由现金流开始转负</tspan> |
| 82 | <tspan x="660" dy="22">• 兑现时间表的耐心被压缩</tspan> |
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| 88 | <text x="640" y="427" text-anchor="middle" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="14" font-weight="bold" fill="#E63946">×</text> |
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| 93 | <text x="60" y="700" font-family=""Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif" font-size="10" fill="#5C5852">Sources: MIT GenAI Pilot Study · Allianz · Seeking Alpha · Goldman Sachs 2026 outlook</text> |
| 94 | <text x="1220" y="700" text-anchor="end" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="10" fill="#5C5852">19 / 20</text> |
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